Nat Gas Update 6/18/2015

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Nat Gas Update 6/18/2015

Natural Gas Storage Report

Injection Season Through Week 11 (Week Ending June 12, 2015)
The injection report today showed a build of 89 BCF, on the low end of expectations which ranged from 87-94 BCF  The market was down about $0.02/MMBtu before the storage report and has softened just a little bit as of 9:35 CPT this morning, now down $0.03/MMBtu.  With heat expected to linger for the rest of the month, the bears may be out of steam, but there is not enough demand to fuel a bull run either.  The market is likely to move sideways for the next week barring a significant weather event.  As of today’s injection report, we will only need to average injections of 67 BCF/week to reach the storage levels forecasted by the EIA.  However, we have been seeing week over week declines in both production and rig counts, so while this goal sounds easily attainable, current market conditions may not support reaching the levels forecasted by the EIA.

This was the third largest injection for Week 11 of the past 6 years, with 2014 coming in at 113 BCF and 2013 coming in at 91 BCF 

The following table compares strip prices week over week, and reflects the decline from this morning’s storage report as of 9:35 a.m. CST.


Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.



The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:


The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns. 



Finally, the graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.